Bjorn’s babies shine as Gai and Adrian’s juvenile fortunes decline
In the space of one season, Bjorn Baker had gone from a bit-part player in Australia’s juvenile ranks to the leading two-year-old trainer in the country.
Being a top stable doesn’t necessarily translate to dominance of the more specialist art of preparing two-year-olds.
Not one of the current top 10 trainers in the country won a juvenile Group 1 race this season. Of the 72 two-year-old stakes races contested so far this season, only 28 have been won by the top 10. In terms of overall two-year-old races, those top 10 have won 126 of 543, or 23.2 per cent.
The biggest improvement of any one trainer in this regard came from Bjorn Baker with 15, 10 more than he posted last season.
What is also significant for Baker is that he has compiled more two-year-old earnings this season than any other trainer with $3.9 million, an amount helped along by both O’ Ole and Within The Law, both of which are by first-season sires.
It is quite a change of fortune for Baker, whose two-year-olds last season banked just $242,000. His number of two-year-old starts also more than doubled this season from 35 to 77. His overall prize money total increased from $14.7 million to $25.5 million, fourth most of any Australian stable.
Second on the earnings list for two-year-olds was Micheal Freedman, whose star filly Marhoona won the Golden Slipper, powering him to $3.7 million. He has 10 two-year-old wins for the season. In comparison, he is 14th on the trainers’ table ranked by prize money.
The other Group 1 winning two-year-olds this season were trained by Team Hawkes, who had both Nepotism and Devil Night, Matt Laurie with Vinrock and Chris and Corey Munce with Cool Archie.
Team Hawkes and Laurie each only had four juvenile wins for the season, while the Munces have six.
The top stable when it comes to overall juvenile winners has been the Lindsay Park trio of Ben, JD and Will Hayes. Harking back to the days when the Hayes family dominated the two-year-old category, there have been 28 successes for the stable this season.
That is four more than last season, despite having a similar number of starters (119 to 117) and includes seven stakes winners, the equal most of any stable with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. The Hayes brothers also have the highest two-year-old winning percentage of any of the top 10, at 23.5 per cent.
The nation’s leading stable, Ciaron Maher, has 17 two-year-old wins, three more than last season, but less than the four seasons with David Eustace before that.
Waterhouse and Bott have dominated Australian two-year-old racing this decade with 35 and 37 wins in each of the past two completed seasons, including 18 individual stakes races.
But 2024/25 has seen a significant drop off in their volume of two-year-old wins, with 19 in total with just two weeks remaining. It is on track to be its quietest two-year-old season since 2019/20.
That has also corresponded with a drop off in the number of two-year-old starts, down from 139 to 107. However, it is one of only three stables, along with Baker and Michael Freedman, to have over $3 million in two-year-old earnings this season.
A similar drop-off in winners has occurred with two of Australia’s other major stables, James Cummings and Chris Waller.
Cummings, whose time at Godolphin comes to an end on August 1, has had 19 Australian two-year-old wins in 2024/25, compared to 27 last season. His overall juvenile starts have dropped off as well, from 178 to 158.
Two seasons ago, Cummings led the country with 41 two-year-old wins and the current total is also his lowest in six seasons.
Waller’s two-year-old success this season is, to this point, his lowest since 2012/13. Waller may have broken records with his number of Group 1 wins, but he has only had nine two-year-old wins from 121 starters. Last year, that figure was 17 from 112. He has just one juvenile stakes winner.
Other top 10 trainers to have had a drop off in two-year-old success include Annabel and Rob Archibald, with five winners (11 last year) and Anthony and Sam Freedman (six as compared to 17).
The other notable stat from a two-year-old trainer perspective is that of Peter Snowden, who has a winning strike rate of 23.8 per cent this season. His 15 two-year-old winners is four fewer than last year, but with less than half the runners (63 compared to 129). As a measure of comparison, Peter and Paul Snowden trained 41 two-year-old winners in 2019/20 from 209 starts.
Source: The Straight